Conflict exacerbates already existing inequalities

The EFA GMR’s last report showed that only a third of countries had reached global education goals set in 2000, and identified conflict as one of the major barriers to achieving better results. A new paper out yesterday in time to feed into the upcoming Oslo and Addis conferences shows the extent of the challenges that conflict presents.

GMR analysis, based on the most recent household survey data from low and middle income countries, shows that children in war zones are more than twice as likely and adolescents more than two-thirds as likely to be out of school compared with those in countries not affected by conflict.

In conflict-affected settings, children and adolescents are also more likely to leave school early. While on average 75% of children in low and middle income countries not affected by conflict complete their primary education, only 58% of those in conflict affected countries do so. A similar gap exists for secondary education: 55% of enrolled children in countries not affected by conflict complete lower secondary education compared with just 37% in conflict-affected countries and areas.

The Education Story for the Small Island Development States 2000-2015

This blog sums up a new Regional Overview of the EFA GMR 2015 for the Small Island Developing States. The overview was prepared to feed into the 19^th Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers taking place this week in the Bahamas.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are a group of 39 countries that share the common characteristics of small size, isolation and vulnerability to natural and environmental disasters. Below is brief overview of their Education for All achievements and challenges during the past 15 years:

Among the 24 countries with data in the region the GMR projects that 14 will reach the early childhood care and education goal by 2015. Nine countries are likely to remain far or very far from the target.

Since 1999, numbers enrolled in pre-primary education increased in more than three-quarters of countries with data in the SIDS, notably in the Cook Islands and Tonga, where ratios more than doubled. However, ratios decreased in several countries, including in Guyana, Saint Lucia and Samoa. Despite overall positive trends, in more than half of SIDS, on average fewer than 75% of children were enrolled in pre-primary school, albeit with major variations across countries, ranging from less than 7% in Guinea-Bissau to more than 100% in Cuba, Mauritius and Seychelles.

One major barrier to pre-primary education in the SIDS is cost. Despite government commitment under EFA to expand ECCE ‘especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged’, in at least half of countries in the region, 60% or more of pre-primary education was provided by the private sector. Private enrolment accounts for 100% of pre-primary enrolment in Saint Lucia, Samoa and Tonga.

World Refugee Day and the lost generation

One in 122 people worldwide is either a refugee, internally displaced, or seeking asylum, says UNHCR’s annual Global Trends Report: World at War, released last Thursday. And given that 58% of all refugees are children, World Refugee Day is a time to reflect on the educational impact of emergency situations, which affect millions of children worldwide.

Photo: UNESCO GMR

During times of emergency and conflict, education is the number one priority for parents, and is vital in reestablishing normality and structure for children in an otherwise unstable environment.

However, while 36% of out of school children live in conflict-affected countries, education accounts for just 2% of humanitarian aid, leaving many children unable to continue school at a time when it matters the most.

According to the UNHCR report, the number of refugees has risen to a staggering 59.5 million in 2014, an increase of over 8 million in just one year. The main reason for such a jump is the war in Syria, which saw an average of 42,500 become refugees every day last year.

What would you put first? A new suit, or your nation’s education?

Photo: Curt Carnemark / World Bank

News has reported this morning that the new National Assembly in Nigeria is to receive $43 million in a clothing allowance, meaning that each of the legislators is receiving over $91,000. According to the latest costing estimates by the EFA GMR team, that amount of money could help 112,000 children access a quality, equitable primary education.

We should remember that over two thirds of people living in Nigeria earn below $1.25 a day, according to 2011 figures. The allowance just received by the 469 legislators for new suits, skirts and shirts, therefore, is equal to the amount that almost 34.5 million people exist on per day.

Aside from clothes, of course, the National Assembly is set to receive all sorts of other allowances, including for furniture and for cars. Those in the House of Representatives will receive the equivalent of $9 million for new chairs and tables, for instance, which could send almost 23,000 children to school. It could be spent on chairs and desks for schools, alternatively.

Why media reports about learning assessment data make me cringe

By Silvia Montoya, Director of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

With a new set of post-2015 education goals and targets on the horizon, the international community is looking to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) to help collect global data on countries as they seek to improve the learning outcomes of their children and youth. UIS is the official source of cross-nationally comparable education data, uniquely placed to identify and produce a range of new indicators with the support of its technical and financial partners. The challenges ahead are tremendous. While addressing the myriad of issues related to data production, we must address the following critical issue: How will the data be used?

The view from the field where scorecards eclipse analysis

Before joining the UIS as Director, I led a series of learning assessment initiatives in my native Argentina. With a small team, we focused on two key areas: producing the policy-relevant information needed for our constituency and ensuring accuracy in every step of the process, from psychometrics to sampling, test administration and data production. There was no room for error – we were producing high-stakes data that would shape education policies and resource allocations for generations.

Credit: Nguyen Thanh Tuan/UNESCO

The work was complex but inspiring. We were producing data that could positively influence the lives of children and their families. But to be honest, I was always nervous about the release of the results. I actually cringe when learning assessments make the front-page news, with headlines focusing on a ‘bad grade’ instead of suggesting recommendations to address the problems faced by the students, their teachers and their families.

As more children have enrolled in schools in India, learning levels have declined

Since 2009-10, when India made eight years of education a fundamental right, the number of 6-14 year olds going to school has grown by over a million. Analysing data from Andhra Pradesh, Young Lives India country Director Renu Singh shows that a rise in enrolment is associated with a worrying collapse in learning standards.

Education has been enshrined as a Fundamental Right of each Indian citizen through the Right to Education (RTE) Act, 2009. RTE, launched in 2010, has contributed to over a million more children aged 6-14 enrolling into both government and private elementary schools across the country. India boasts the largest school system in the world with 1.44 million elementary schools, and almost 200 million students enrolled.

Young Lives, a longitudinal research study on childhood poverty, has been following two cohorts of 3,000 children aged eight years (1,000 children) and one year (2,000 children) in undivided Andhra Pradesh since 2002. The first cohort of children turned 12 years of age in 2006 and the second cohort of children turned 12 years in 2013. The 2013 survey shows 97% of 12 year olds enrolling in elementary school, up from 89% in 2006. Given that Young Lives has a pro-poor sample, it is heartening to note that no major gaps in enrolment have been found across gender, caste, or urban/ rural location.

Why are citizen led learning assessments not having an impact on home soil – and how can we change that?

By Colin Bangay, Senior Education Adviser for the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) in India. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official position or policies.

Citizen-led learning assessments have been one of the most internationally influential educational initiatives of the decade. However, what of impact in their home countries?

Photo credit: Akhtar Soomro / EFAReport UNESCO

This blog is written on ASER India’s tenth birthday, prompting us to celebrate its success but also look to the future. ASER in India has been ground-breaking, inspiring participatory learning assessments across the globe: Uwezo in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, Bèekunko in Mali, Jàngandoo in Senegal, and ASER Pakistan. The findings of these assessments are widely cited and underpin important commentary on learning in the EFA Global Monitoring Report. Collectively, this movement has been critical in shifting attention away from the exclusive focus on access, brought about by the shape of MDG 2,  to one on learning embedded in the post 2015 sustainable development goals and the learning metrics task force.

But what of ASER’s impact on affecting reform efforts? A 2014 RCT impact assessment of ‘Uwezo’ in Kenya concluded the programme had no discernible impact on either private or collective action. This finding echoes a comprehensive survey of community led initiatives by The Global Partnership for Social Accountability, which warns that information alone is not enough to affect change.  ASER India’s 2006-14 review of learning trends also tells a disappointing story – at best of learning stagnation – giving rise to two questions – Why might that be?  What might be done about it?

World Education Forum declares: ‘no target met unless met for all’

By Pauline Rose, previous director of the GMR, and now Professor of Education at the University of Cambridge. First published on 26 May 2015 for The Conversation UK.

Looking back at the World Education Forum, which drew more than 1,500 people from 140 countries to Incheon in the Republic of Korea, it is easy to be cynical about what these global meetings can achieve. After all, we have had two other such gatherings in the past 25 years – in Jomtien, Thailand in 1990 and Dakar, Senegal in 2000 – yet millions of children are still out of school and many millions more are not learning.

But there were strong signals from those who gathered – including the president of Korea, Park Geun-hye, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, ministers of education and the heads of UN agencies – of a strong commitment to promoting the transformation of lives through education. Three years ago there was genuine concern that education was going to get forgotten in any post-2015 agenda that was being developed. But the energy of UN agencies, national governments, international donor agencies and NGOs has now resulted in education gaining its rightful place amongst the post-2015 sustainable development goals.

This commitment has resulted in an ambitious agenda to be achieved by 2030, as set out in the Incheon Declaration. The agenda is framed by the overarching goal of achieving “equitable and inclusive quality education and lifelong learning for all by 2030”.

Key education targets will not be reached by 2030 if recent trends continue

By Manos Antoninis and Marcos Delprato, Senior Policy Analyst and Research Office respectively, for the Education for All Global Monitoring Report.

A new technical note prepared by the EFA Global Monitoring Report for the World Education Forum about the feasibility of achieving the new global education agenda by 2030, shows that, if current trends persist, the headline education target of universal secondary education completion may not even be met this century in low and middle income countries, let alone by the target date.

Are post-2015 education targets too optimistic?

The analysis shows that the lower secondary completion rate in low and middle income countries will reach 76% by 2030 and 85% by 2050, while a target of 95% will not be achieved until the 2080s. Likewise, the upper secondary completion rate in low and middle income countries will reach just 50% in 2030 and 63% by 2050, while a target of 95% will not be achieved before the end of the century.

These projections take into account the current level of completion of each country. From there onwards, countries tend to make faster progress at relatively lower rates of completion but progress tends to slow down as countries come nearer to the target. This is because it is much harder to bring and keep in school the most disadvantaged children who are hardest to reach.

Hope for Nigeria

On 1 April the election took place in Nigeria for a new President. Today, Mr. Muhammadu Buhari is sworn in as President. This blog looks at the reasons for hope behind the priorities of the new government for education.

The most basic of resources for education in Nigeria — teachers — are lacking. Photo credit: Aaron Akpu Philip/EFAReport UNESCO

Countering expectations, no violence occurred when a new President was given a democratic majority last month. Many are even nominating Goodluck Jonathan for a Nobel Peace Prize for the way he stood down from office. This might be the dawn of a promising new era for Nigeria that we should all support wholeheartedly. Mr Buhari was voted in on the campaign promises to tackle corruption and insecurity, both of which could have a huge impact on the future of education in the country.

Corruption was a buzz word in the election campaign after the news reported two years ago that some $20 billion of oil revenue was not paid into the federation account by the previous political leadership. The 2012 GMR noted how the poor management of natural resource revenues affects education and the latest Report shows that an equivalent of $21 million of education funding has been lost over two years. Meanwhile the most basic of resources for education — teachers — are lacking. Nigeria needs an additional 220,000 primary school teachers – 15% of the global total.